The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:个股)
-
以下是沙龙上的干货辑,欢迎留下评论。...[详细]
-
2025十大btc交易app排名合集 以太币怎么交易怎么提现
恰逢“3·15”,剩下那部分未办理退款的用户发现无法登陆友友用车App后,开始着急起来。...[详细]
-
在过去一年,我们看到,知乎的这种影响力得到了进一步的彰显,乃至是促进了诸多社会疑难、痼疾的解决落地。...[详细]
-
因此,创投机构必须帮助企业上市,才能退出拿到自己的利润。...[详细]
-
相比起其他国家,niconico的弹幕文化对于中国的影响来得更为深刻而广泛。...[详细]
-
钛媒体集团旗下科技投行“潜在投资”,经过对中国创投市场创业数据的梳理,对主流投资机构及创业项目的深度走访,利用取样分析,数据综合分类,深度面访,多维度比对等手段制作完成了这...[详细]
-
他们的日常生活是疯狂攒稿——最早是直接搬运,一字不改地抄袭,后来各大平台上线了原创保护后,同平台抄袭变成了跨平台抄袭,比如从头条号里抄一篇发到百家号里,一些熟练的做号者,还...[详细]
-
米哈游成立的2012年,彼时二次元还是边缘文化,游戏产业也依然还是腾讯、网易这样的游戏大厂的天下,二次元游戏还被认为是日本的舶来品或是没有成气候的小众游戏。...[详细]
-
摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,他不会排除美国经济衰退的可能性,并警告称,市场存在诸多不确定性
作为全媒体多终端的第一财经,集团副总编辑张志清认为,要做更深耕细作的转型,核心还在于要建立起产品思维和用户思维。...[详细]
-
蒋美兰老师将现身虎嗅WOW!现场,复盘星巴克“绿包”是如何用“社交货币”从真金白银的红包中杀出并刷屏的。...[详细]