The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:个股)
-
所以,从五月份至今,《王者荣耀》一方面继续原来的增加用户活跃度的活动,另一方面又加大了在社交方面的活动,让老玩家能够顺利带新玩家入坑。...[详细]
-
在这场闹剧中,我们也能看到各大平台对于错误舆论进行正向引导、斧正能力的差距。...[详细]
-
目前来看,这个数据与2016年的实际市场规模相差不大。...[详细]
-
从本质上看,在线票务平台很难发展成为一个真正意义上的用户平台,它只是用户完成某一类特定产品交易的地方。...[详细]
-
2013年他成立了自己的游戏研发公司稻草熊科技,主要研发一些IP游戏。...[详细]
-
数据安全概念31日主力净流出35.23亿元,中国长城、创意信息居前
——网易云音乐用户@南国北岛 在张敬轩《断点》歌曲下方的评论 多少人以朋友的名义默默的爱着。...[详细]
-
话说回来,夹层及信用投资的本质依旧是债,属于固定收益类投资,与纯PE投资相差甚远,只不过换了一个名头而已。...[详细]
-
港股异动 | 小鹏汽车-W(09868)逆势涨近3% P7+定档11月7日 分体式飞行汽车即将全球公开首飞
也曾有过幸福时刻 从全民宠儿到人人喊打,中国的虚拟经济火了不到两年时间。...[详细]
-
杨国强说大堂噪音大,一个门徒马上就找到原因“通风口太小”,另外一个则重新改装了电梯的朝向“因为风水更好”。...[详细]
-
小钱也够多了,据《新闻晨报》此前报道称,扫码者“扫一个码最高时能拿到3.5元,最少能拿到2元,以前靠这个能赚到2万元一个月。...[详细]